News Analysis: Israel inching closer to snap elections

News Analysis: Israel inching closer to snap elections

JERUSALEM, Oct. 24 (Xinhua) -- An early general election is looming in Israel as the third largest party closed its door on any possibility to join Prime Minister-designate Tzipi Livni's coalition.

The leadership of the Shas party, the Council of Torah Sages, has decided not to take part in a new government led by Livni, announced the ultra-Orthodox party in a statement, quoted by local news service Ynet, saying that Livni would not meet its demands.

The religious party, which has often played the role of a kingmaker in previous cabinet-making process, has mainly conditioned its partnership on a significant increase of funding for the poor population and a promise not to make concessions over the status of Jerusalem in peace talks with the Palestinians.

"Shas has asked only for two things: real financial help for the weak in Israeli society and protection for Jerusalem, which is not merchandise for sale," local daily Ha'aretz quoted Shas spokesman Roy Lachmanovich as saying.

He added that as these demands could not be satisfied, its leaders decided not to continue coalition talks.

Speaking at a conference following the announcement, Shas chairman Eli Yishai categorically ruled out the likelihood that his party might reconsider its refusal, stressing that the decision was final. "We made our decision according to our principles. Shas cannot be bought. We stick to our goals and principles," he said.

　　SHAS' REJECTION BLOCKS LIVNI'S CABINET-MAKING EFFORTS

The rejection drastically crushed the hope for Livni to set up a wide ruling coalition. Her Kadima party, although standing as the largest party, possesses only 29 seats in the 120-seat parliament, and thus has to rule in the form of a coalition government.

Earlier this month, Livni secured an initial coalition agreement with the second largest party Labor, boasting the number of seats to 48. Should she also draw the 12-seat Shas under her flag, the premier-designate would guarantee a convenient majority in the parliament.

Without Shas, Livni would probably succeed in patching together a narrow coalition with some smaller parties. Local newspaper The Jerusalem Post reported Thursday that Livni is lobbying for support for such a possible scenario.

In response to Shas' boycott, Livni repeated her statement made Thursday that she is determined to meet with Israeli President Shimon Peres on Sunday to announce whether she is able to form a coalition before the Nov. 3 deadline or to call for an early general election.

The would-be second woman premier in Israel's history has vowed to present a coalition to the parliament on Monday, the first day of the legislature's winter session. Her associates said she would pay a price for a coalition, but not any price.

NARROW COALITION OR SNAP ELECTION?

Now the former Mossad intelligence agent is left only with two apparent options: to risk introducing a narrow coalition, or to head for snap elections, and the prospect of either choice is anything but bright.

On one hand, it is still unclear whether a narrow coalition would obtain parliamentary approval, a prerequisite for any government to be instated, as Shas and even some Kadima members have vowed to vote against it.

On the other hand, recent polls showed that should snap elections be held, possibly in the spring, the current main opposition party Likud, which has ruled out any possibility of joining a Livni government, would emerge as the biggest winner.

Meanwhile, senior Israeli political figures are voicing mixed proposals to the premier-designate, some pushing for snap elections, and some appealing her to go ahead with a narrow coalition.

By law, should Livni fail in her cabinet-making efforts, Peres might assign the mission to a second and even a third lawmaker. If all the efforts bear no fruit, the parliament will automatically dissolve itself, and snap elections will be held within 90 days.

In defiance of the polling results, a confident Livni told her fellow party members Thursday that should an early election take place, "we'll win."

The political turmoil in Israel casts a shadow over its peace talks with the Palestinians.

Palestinian officials have been complaining that Israel's political uncertainty represents a major blockade along the already sluggish peace process.

Little tangible progress has been achieved since the Palestinian and Israeli leaders promised last November to reach a comprehensive peace deal within 2008, and hopes are dying away for the two neighbors to realize that ambitious goal.